3723 days ago
Share tip services usually bodge performance in a number of ways. You can safely say they try to make their stats look as good as possible in order to get you to sign up. The bodges are easy.
The most common one is to use mid-prices rather than offer to bid. It is industry standard to do this and no-one wants to break ranks. I admit that when at t1ps the performance of Steve & I was calculated in this way. It gets compliance sign off, it is legal, everyone does it but it is completely misleading. It is not as if your poor readers get to buy and sell at the mid.
I know of penny stocks that trade at 1p-1.5p. Tip such a stock and see it go to 2.25-2.75p and the industry standard website will claim a 100% gain. The real gain is of course 50% - if you serve up only 10 or so tips a year that “fudge” allows you to boost your stated performance by 5 percentage points. But it is thoroughly misleading.
Steve & I admit to have sinned with the rest of the industry but we have repented and wish others would do the same
The second is to claim performance from one share commentator to promote your publication when he or she does not in fact write for it anymore. I note that Red Hot Penny Shares (a publication I was the founder editor of in 1998) has recently changed editor. Yet
4143 days ago
have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment. If its own South African workers were not on strike, workers at neighbouring mines were out and engaging in secondary picketing. The prices of Platinum Group Metals fell sharply (to around $1100 for a PGM basket) and meanwhile negotiations on the sale of half of its Zimbabwean operation to local Black Economic Empowerment groups dragged on. After such an annus hornbills, long serving CEO Stuart Murray stepped down as CEO and the share price is now 55p, having been 45p three years ago. But could 2013 be a year of recovery for this company which is still valued at £260 million?
4211 days ago
Northern Bear (NTBR), a UK building services group, is a most disappointing recommendation from my past. I first recommended the shares at 71.5p in December 2008 and though they have recovered a bit from lows of 8p earlier this year, they currently trade at 11.75p having been buffeted by fears about the company’s balance sheet and its operating environment. I can only apologise for what was a duff tip. In the following I take a renewed look at the investment case.
4214 days ago
I am a bit of an anomaly on this website. Most of the material is technical analysis and most of that is non equities. And so my small and mid cap fundamental analysis seems to be a bit of light relief. I am not sure how many folks who day trade ETF contracts or the AUD/USD on the basis of technical analysis read my stuff but it seems to be a few. The only other fellow commentating on equities seems to be my pal Zak Mir as one of his moonlighting jobs away from you know where..
4215 days ago
I recommended shares in Fiberweb (LSE: FWEB) in August 2009 at 60p as the market looked to have overly discounted the company’s debt burden given its cash generation and I thought its markets close to the bottom. The company has subsequently sold the majority of its ‘hygiene nonwovens’ business and resultantly now has a net cash position. The shares currently trade at 70p, giving a market cap of £121.5 million, and, including dividends of 12.4p, I would argue that I have delivered a fairly decent return (37%). However, with macro economic recovery set to be gradual and drawn-out, the outlook in the company’s international specialty industrial and construction materials businesses is, I would argue, pretty uncertain. As such, there look to be more attractive plays on similar ratings elsewhere and so it is time to sell and move on. Here is why.
4219 days ago
IM listed oil producing penny share dreadful Sefton Resources (LSE: SER) has today issued an RNS which is (by its standards) half way to being accurate. Even so, it is pretty grim. The shares have plunged by 14.5% to a new all time low of 1.325p but I remain of the view that they are worth no more than a fraction of that. They are now 99% down from the IPO price a decade ago, during which time chairman Jim Ellerton has made millions of pounds from excessive boardroom fees. But the stock will fall again and again over the coming years as Sefton’s true predicament emerges. I shall explain below why this is a conviction sell.
4241 days ago
I am often accused by BB morons of not being able to tip a waiter, rather than being a top share tipster. The abuse normally centres on duff tips I have served up. Over 12 years in the small cap world no-one ( not even BB morons) has a 100% record.
Just to check out what my actual record is, I reviewed the 241 tips made on t1ps.com between its launch 12 years ago and when I went on care & maintenance basis in June hoping for a change in management. In between reading a stream of twitter abuse hurled at me by the new senior writer at t1ps, I did the maths for a range of stocks, penny shares, mid caps and the odd blue chip.
241 tips over 12 years. Average gain per tip 42.7%. Average holding period 34 months.
4257 days ago
Wednesday saw me enjoy lunch with Paul Atherley, the CEO and largest shareholder in AIM listed Leyshon Resources ( LRL) which at 11.5p is capitalised at £27.76 million. That is simply the wrong price. Other than the value in Leyshon, and the fact that Atherley is a Man United supporter who actually hails from the grim North rather than Esher, a number of other matters struck me.
4261 days ago
Sincere apologies but thanks to a well known website beginning with A, I have been using the wrong issued share capital in calculating a valuation for AIM listed oil penny share Range Resources (RRL). There are not 1.129 billion shares in issue but 2.357 billion. Oh dear. This does nothing to alter the sell case I have expounded for some days except to make it more pronounced. I have revised the previous articles published to reflect this minor data error on a website beginning with A.
I stand by my conclusion that I would not buy this stock at any price until it agrees a new debt facility as it is almost out of cash. Moreover if that facility is agreed I would only buy at 0.75p or less in order to give me enough upside potential to justify the risk since my estimate of fair value falls – using the correct shares in issue – from 2.4p to 1.18p. Ouch.
